NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BACK IN THE LIMELIGHT

Although some Nigerian newspapers claim that Nigeria's stance on AFRICOM is the reason why Bush changed his itinerary and didn't visit Abuja during this trip, I posit that the real reason behind this change is the fact that the Nigerian Election Tribunal will issue its ruling on the validity of the last Presidential election this Tuesday the 26th of February.
It would be quite embarrassing for an American President to visit a President whose political legitimacy is in question and could possibly lose his position in a few days time. Bush is a lame duck President that cannot afford too many more political mistakes in the last few months of office. That, and not any semantic differences over AFRICOM, is the real reason why Bush did not visit Aso Rock.

I have been waiting for the Tribunal to issue its decision for a long time, especially since Yardy initially announced that he would honor the decision of the Tribunal whatever it might be. He has since stated that he will challenge any unfavorable Tribunal ruling in the nation's Supreme Court. Whatever the result may be, I hope that peace will prevail.

WHAT IF YARDY'S ELECTION IS DECLARED NULL AND VOID?
Someone recently told me that if Yardy's election were scrapped, it would spell disaster for Nigeria. In his opinion, the judicial invalidation of the President would create political instability which would in turn lead to social instability and violence in a country that arguably sits on the precipice.Fellow blogger, Chxta, even opined that he hopes "that the verdict doesn't kick Yar'Adua out and plunge Nigeria into a period of chaos".

I cannot say that I completely disagree with this analysis. It is more than possible that the invalidation of Yardy's election could lead to instability and violence. After all, one need only look to Kogi state to see the incredible violence that resulted when a Governor's election was declared invalid. The question then becomes, assuming the Court has evidence to show that the election was fraudulent, is that enough to risk potential chaos?

I abhor violence and detest unnecessary death. But, at the same time, I strongly believe in doing the right things at the right time. If evidence requires the invalidation of the last Presidential elections, then that is what must happen. Yar'Adua, who champions the 'Rule of Law' will then have the responsibility of discouraging violence and taking advantage of other legal avenues to challenge the decision. This could cause some instability, but it does not have to. With the proper planning by the Federal, State and local governments, any possible violence can be avoided. However, in a country where many politicians pay area boys and so-called 'militants' to fight their political battles for them, I have little faith that things will be done right, if the Tribunal were to void the elections. People who have power will do almost anything to maintain it.

AND IF THE ELECTION IS DECLARED VALID?
If the elections are declared valid, I will congratulate Yardy. In fact, I will encourage everyone I know to congratulate Yar'Adua. Such a decision would help to lessen the questions about his legitimacy and would hopefully allow his administration to continue with the nation's business. Any possible violence would come from anti-Yardy or anti-PDP supporters, but somehow, I just don't see too much violence erupting in response to such a decision. Again, an adequate contingency plan would prevent significant violence, while allowing peaceful expression of discontent if such were to happen at all.

Okay, I lied. I would have congratulated Yardy, but I discovered from Ijebuman that the Chairman of the Presidential Elections Tribunals, Justice James Ogebe was nominated as a Supreme Court judge a few days ago. The powers that be have a vested interest in ensuring that Yardy remains President by any means possible. And, they will do what they can to maintain the status quo. Those that benefit form the status quo will continue to get rich and the rest of us on the outside will simply watch them get richer. Or, maybe some people will do something about it. Oh, well, Nigeria never quite seems to change.

All we can do is wait and see what will happen and hope for the best. Doing the right thing is usually the hardest thing to do. But the difficulty involved does not change the need to do the right thing. The world is watching, Nigeria.
AND, FINALLY...
Congratulations are in order for Zanzibar which has virtually eliminated malaria! It wasn't magic, but the commitment to proven methods that have transformed this small island's future. Hopefully, the rest of us can follow Zanzibar's lead and eradicate this killer disease that has continuously ravaged our wonderful continent.


Further Reading:
- 'Soiled Hands' & Strategy: What Nigeria Says About Democracy
- Who Will Fight For Nigeria? (AFRICOM PT. 1)
- AFRICOM... The Dotted Line Has Been Signed
- A Bush In Africa
- Nigerian Presidential Elections Back In The Spotlight