Monday, November 30, 2009

The World Bank expects the Nigerian economy to experience exponential growth beginning 2010. According to Ismail Radwan, a Senior Economist from the Bank specified,

“The Nigerian economy is doing very well....the latest figures released by the Central Bank of Nigeria indicates that growth is still going on at six or even close to seven per cent this year and next year will even be higher. So, we know that the potential of the Nigerian economy is even higher than that...As a matter of fact, the Nigerian economy should be growing in double digits."

The World Bank's public vote of confidence in the Nigerian economy will act as a positive sign for those investors that are yet to enter the Nigerian economic terrain. Although foreign direct investment continues to come into Nigeria, it seem sit is yet to adequately trickle down and benefit those further down the economic and social food chain. Nevertheless, the potential for economic growth, and at double digits, is enough to encourage most who understand Nigeria's capacity to be a goldmine. The Central Bank was equally praised for putting local banks in line and encouraging better "supervision and governance practices."
Radwan also noted that Nigeria's recent economic slowdown was primarily a result in the drop of oil and not other factors as witnessed in many countries. He went on to state that since the price of oil has gone back up and currently trades around $80 per barrel, "it seems that the crisis is over for Nigeria." While Radwan's optimism is relatively infectious, it might be too early to proclaim a turn in the economic tide simply because the price of oil is creeping back up. The price of oil alone, might no longer be the best indicator of future economic growth for the nation.

Given Nigeria's unique situation - a President that is sick and away from the country recovering - there are certain political questions that come to bear. Will MEND fall in line to keep the newly discovered peace that has come to Nigeria's oil producing area at a cost of billions of dollars? Will President Yar'Adua hold onto his seat or bow to the growing voices calling for his resignation due to his health issues? Will Nigerian banks start lending money to local small businesses and entrepreneurs? Will the oil industry and other sectors of the economy receive the investment needed to drive the economy and ensure that the predicted recovery is not a jobless one as is currently the case in the United States? Will the predicted growth create the jobs necessary to fuel spending at all levels?

There are seemingly far too many unanswerable questions, and this writer hesitates to assume that things will be smooth sailing economically. Nevertheless, this writer believes that these predictions from the World Bank are an opportunity to further push non-petroleum sectors of the economy so as to somewhat lessen the nation's dependence on oil and the fluctuations of the global economy. At all levels, be it, federal, state or local government, Nigerian authorities must remain focused on doing the things necessary to encourage confidence not just in foreign investors and organizations like the World Bank, but in average citizens as well. That confidence will foster commitment, hope and zeal which Nigeria, and not just its economy, needs. And, hopefully, even more positive news about the nation and its future.

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Adesoji Adegbulu said...


RWS said...

That's good for Nigeria because in other parts of the world, the economy is still sluggish and with the current crisis affecting Dubai, global economy may reserved itself, again.


Spesh said...

Well,thats not really visible as times are still hard.........

Anonymous said...

Interesting stuff!

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NaijaBabe said...

Interesting. I'm glad to hear this, but we better be careful to avoid a crash.
It'd also be beneficial if this growth starts to trickle down the chain and people can actually start to believe what they see on the news

Jenykel Nkechi Ezeike said...

There is every need for curios Nigerians who are willing to bring about the kind of change that this country require in a way its economy will run to foster growths through seriuos innovations,there by create a safe , stable socio- economic envinronment within the nation.

bath mate said...

As always an excellent posting.The
way you write is awesome.Thanks. Adding more information will be more useful.


Savings said...

This is very interesting. The fact that a country can be so reliant on the price of gas and that their economy can be threatened by slight changes. What is going to happen to these countries when better resources are found and their resources run dry? It may not happen in our generation but I fear it will happen in our childrens.

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