NIGERIA'S NEW PRESIDENT & A NEW VP?

One day after the unfortunate passing of Nigeria's President YarAdua, Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President. Although sworn in at 9:30 am, Jonathan failed to make it to the afternoon burial of the former President. He was not the only important political figure to miss the event, however, as former President Obasanjo was also absent. Despite this, and as was to be expected, the jostling for who will become the new Vice President has begun in earnest. Reports indicate that Jonathan is set to announce his deputy on Tuesday, May 11th. Who Jonathan picks could tell a lot about which direction Nigeria will go in and whether Jonathan will run for the Presidency in 2011.

DECIDING ON A NEW VICE PRESIDENT
Section 146(3) of the Constitution stipulates that the new President must select a Vice President and submit his or her name to the National Assembly for confirmation. As such, certain individuals are now rumored to be top contenders including former EFCC head, Nuhu Ribadu (the Federal Government dropped all charges against him on May 6, 2010), governor of Jigawa State and norther, Sule Lamido, current National Security Adviser Aliyu Gusau, and other prominent Northerners. One non-Muslim, but Northerner, that has been mentioned as a possible Vice President is the current President of the Senate, David Mark. These men all played crucial roles in easing the path for Jonathan to become acting President.

The new Vice President will have an opportunity to run as a Presidential candidate in the upcoming 2011 elections. As such, whoever is selected for the position will have even more power than an ordinary V.P. given the fact that elections are right around the corner. Assuming that this person were to run and win the Presidency, his or her time as Vice President would be primarily used to make a case for electoral support amongst Nigeria's elites and the voting public. As there remain questions about the 'agreement' that power should fluctuate between the North and South, many are watching closely to see if Jonathan will select a Northern Vice President that will then be poised to become President and satisfy demands from the Northern elite.

WILL JONATHAN RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2011?
There is, however, the question of whether Jonathan intends to run for President and not simply complete Yar'Adua's first term. If that is the case, it will be interesting to see if he will pick a Vice President that will stand little chance at running in the Presidential elections. Doing such would hearken back to the great debate from 2007 when former President Obasanjo handpicked Yar'Adua as his successor. Many speculated that Obasanjo picked the sick Yar'Adua knowing fully well that the newer President would be unable to complete his term, as has now come to pass. If Jonathan were to pick a Vice President that would not have the necessary qualifications or support to possibly win the Presidential office, that could be a sign that he plans to stay on as President.

Nevertheless, Jonathan has been very careful to deflect any questions about a possible Presidential run and has stressed that he intends to focus on ensuring the systems and structures necessary for credible elections. That task will be a difficult one, but the recent firing of the previous INEC Chair, Maurice Iwu, means that Jonathan might just be one step closer to achieving his promise. Irregardless of who becomes the next Vice President of Nigeria, there is plenty of work to be done. He or she will be very busy from day one working with Jonathan to do the things Nigerians need.